Week 18 has already featured a ton of line movement. Eight games moved at least a field goal from their lookahead lines, with four games moving at least six points, largely due to playoff motivations changing for various teams.
However, motivation in Week 18 doesn’t always lead to a cover. Since 2009, teams that have neither clinched a playoff spot nor been eliminated are 19-33-1 ATS against teams that have either clinched or been eliminated.
Entering the final week of the season, unders, road teams and underdogs have all been profitable. However, home teams went 13-2-1 ATS last week, the most covers home teams have ever had in a single week in the Super Bowl era.
Season recap
Home teams: 13-2-1 ATS last week (best week all season); 120-133-3 ATS this season (.474)
Home underdogs: 5-0 ATS last week; 49-50 ATS this season (.495)
Favorites: 8-7-1 ATS last week; 120-130-3 ATS this season (.480)
Unders: 10-6 last week; 139-114-3 this season (.547)
Best teams ATS: Packers, Cowboys (12-4)
Worst team ATS: Jaguars (4-12)
Best over teams: Jets, Vikings (10-6)
Best under team: Broncos (12-4 under)
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos, Saturday at 4:30 ET
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Denver has been at least a 9-point underdog one time this season. Denver upset Dallas as a 10-point underdog in Week 9.
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Denver has been a home underdog of 9 points or more only twice in the past 30 seasons entering this week. It was a 17-point home underdog against New Orleans last season when it had no active quarterbacks. Prior to that, Denver had not been a 9-point home underdog since 1992 (+9 vs. Dallas) and it had not been a 9.5-point home underdog since 1987 against the Los Angeles Raiders with replacement players. The last time Denver was a 9.5-point home underdog with a quarterback active who was not a replacement player was 1975.
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Kansas City is 9-2 ATS against Denver since 2016 and 4-1 ATS against Vic Fangio.
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Kansas City has covered six of its past seven games (did not cover last week at Cincinnati).
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Kansas City…
Source : espn
