Would the US win a war with China over Taiwan? US lawmakers briefed on


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House lawmakers were briefed Wednesday about the potential outcome if the U.S. were to find itself at war with China over Taiwan within the next two years, as the global superpower increasingly encroaches on U.S. allies. 

The Chinese defense industrial base is operating at a “wartime footing,” and now has a shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than the U.S.’s, making a potential invasion of Taiwan a not-unlikely outcome.

U.S. military analysts have projected 2027 as the year by which China would be fully equipped for a military invasion of Taiwan. And the U.S. has long followed a policy of refusing to say whether it would come to the island’s defense under such a scenario. 

But under war exercises gamed out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 25 times and presented to members of the House China Select Committee, the alliance of the U.S., Taiwan and Japan defeated an amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan, but not without suffering heavy losses. 

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During the simulation, the cost for all sides was high – there were more than 10,000 casualties – and the U.S. lost 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes and more than 3,000 troops were killed over the three weeks of fighting. 

China loses 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships, and 160 warplanes. 

“In our tabletop exercise today, we walked through one simulation of what might happen in a worst-case scenario conflict with China and learned ways we can work together in a bipartisan manner to ensure that America is prepared to be the arsenal of democracy once more if called upon. No matter where or when, the United States and our allies must have the military means to defeat our adversaries,” Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., chairman of the committee, told Fox News Digital. 

A China Coast Guard vessel patrols at the disputed Scarborough Shoal.


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