Whether he attacks Ukraine or not, Putin has already won

President Joe Biden and Russian bad boy Vladimir Putin have now had their two-hour virtual parlay about the Ukraine crisis. Is there any clear sense on how this will all end? No. 

The readout from the White House looked thinner than Christmas tissue paper, but from what can be gleaned the U.S. side put nothing more on the table than what the president and secretary of state have been saying for days: more sanctions.  

The threat of sanctions is meant to deter a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine. But history shows that sanctions are no more of a deterrent to Putin than a speed bump to a monster truck. Just ask the good folks of occupied Crimea. Or occupied Georgia.  

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Indeed, sanctions are not for deterring bad behavior; they are a tool of coercion, meant to punish bad behavior. Totalitarian regimes have learned to live with sanctions. Just ask the ayatollah. 

By putting only sanctions out there, Biden looks feckless. And that means that, whether he attacks Ukraine or not, Putin has already won. The Russian strongman has shown he can threaten and intimidate the transatlantic community, while they do nothing more than wave their fingers at the bully who made a career of breaking fingers for fun. 

What could Biden have done better? 

Biden can’t say the U.S. will fight to defend Ukraine. Ukraine is not a treaty ally. What’s more the U.S. doesn’t have to fight for Ukraine. Ukrainians can do that. There are 44 million of them. If Putin attacks, he will have a fight on his hands. The Russians would have to strike in winter, against determined defenders.  

What Biden should have done is hammer Putin for threatening the transatlantic community at all. Biden should be fit to be tied—not just for Ukraine, but for Russian meddling in Bosnia, the Belarus border crisis, energy blackmail against Moldova and other outrages.  

Rather than…