The headlines related to Donald Trump’s trade war to date have largely all been negative and with total justification.
We’ve heard of the dire impact tariffs are expected to have on the UK and wider global economy from the International Monetary Fund, the toll they are already taking on UK exporters to the United States – especially car, steel and aluminium manufacturers.
Jobs, order books and profitability are threatened and stock markets have lost significant ground, knocking pension and investment values.
Money latest: State pensions have been underpaid by £800m
Government borrowing costs have also faced upwards pressure.
But from the understandable depths of despair and frustration felt over the president’s protectionist path, there are also some unintended positives emerging that may help drive down some big bills for both households and businesses alike in the UK.
Oil and fuel
The surprise news on Wednesday that the US economy had contracted over the first three months of the year – caused by a dash for imports to beat tariffs – drove a decisive blow to oil prices.
They have fallen steadily since Trump 2.0 began in January but the declines accelerated after the “liberation day” tariff bomb was dropped early last month.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 15% in April alone and is currently trading at a four-year low of $60.
Analysts are now openly talking about the prospects for a $55 level, also aided by signals that Saudi Arabia is going to sell more oil.
RAC Fuel Watch data shows average costs of 134.19p-per-litre for unleaded and 140.71p for diesel this week.
Its commentary, on both measures, adds simply: “should fall sharply”.
A report by the motoring organisation on pump costs due on Friday is expected to accuse retailers of profiteering, even as prices ease towards four-year lows.
