The latest poll found that Becerra was closely followed by Steyer and Republican candidate Steve Hilton, each of whom was backed by 17% of respondents. But that 2-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error, political scientists note, so it doesn’t mean that Becerra has a clear lead over Steyer and Hilton.
“From a statistical standpoint, we don’t have enough confidence to know which person is ahead, but we’re very confident that Hilton, Becerra, Steyer are separate from the rest of the pack based on the margin of error,” says Christian Grose, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California. “I would say that Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton are statistically tied, based on that poll.”
Conroy says that results may vary poll to poll, noting that some surveys show Steyer polling slightly ahead of Becerra. But she says that recent polls do indicate that Becerra has gained ground in the race, and that he and Steyer are the most popular Democrats in the field at this point, while Hilton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump and previously served as a political strategist for former British Prime MInister David Cameron, is the leading Republican candidate.
