What if Britain has, almost entirely by accident, navigated itself into about the best possible position it could be in, as Donald Trump embarks on a trade war with nearly all his economic partners?
I realise this might, at first, sound a little odd. After all, when the world is facing economically-destructive measures (blanket tariffs are invariably value-destructive, in the short run at least) it’s hard to see much in the way of victories. Moreover, when it comes to Donald Trump, no one, including his own cabinet and staff, can quite predict what will happen next. Consider the roller-coaster over tariffs in the past few days alone.
Even so, the fact remains that of all the countries and regions in the world, Britain seems much less likely than most to face the kind of peremptory tariffs the president is so keen on.
Trade war latest: Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for a month
To see why, it helps to remember that the one thing Mr Trump hates above all else is trade deficits – when you import more goods (and it seems to be goods he mostly cares about) from another country than you send there in return.
America has an enormous trade deficit with China and with Mexico too, not to mention a smaller but not insubstantial deficit with Canada. When the president talks about the reasons for his tariffs he sometimes mentions illegal fentanyl imports, but, even more often, he references the size of the trade deficits. He wants America to make more stuff domestically and suck in less stuff from overseas.
We could have a long conversation (and I suspect we probably will have a long conversation in the coming months) about the extent to which deficits are, per se, a bad thing. But in the short run let’s focus on the UK and its strengths in this game.
First, since the UK is no longer part of the European Union, it will not automatically face the same trade terms as its neighbours on the continent. If the US imposes tariffs on the EU,…
