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Beef prices are soaring — and economists warn Americans shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon, as the U.S. cattle herd shrinks to its smallest size in 75 years.
The massive decrease in cattle numbers has been caused by years of drought, soaring costs and an aging ranching workforce. Agricultural economists and ranchers alike say rebuilding herds will take years, meaning beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.
“The biggest thing has been drought,” said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University.
Years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it difficult to rebuild America’s herds.
THE COST OF THIS GROCERY STAPLE IS NEARING RECORD HIGHS — AND AMERICANS CAN’T GET ENOUGH
Cattle look at a rancher who inspects them on a farm from a truck. (Jonne Roriz/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each incremental increase in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decline in farm income.
That slow recovery isn’t just economic — it’s biological, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.
“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” Peel said. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”
Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said it takes roughly two years to bring cattle to market and several years to rebuild herds — leaving little room for short-term relief.
THE SINGLE CRUSHING PROBLEM AMERICAN CATTLE RANCHERS WISH TRUMP WOULD…
