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As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, a political clock is ticking at home.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil choke point largely shuttered since the conflict with Iran due to Iranian attacks — reopened immediately, it could take months for oil flows to return due to logistical bottlenecks involving trapped tankers, swollen inventories and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, pushing normalization of global energy markets closer to the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
“It’s then going to take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,” Smith said.
The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outlast the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions to global energy markets could linger long after any agreement is reached, leaving voters with months of elevated costs heading into the midterms.
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The economic effects are already visible.
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year earlier — an increase of nearly 35%.
Moody’s Analytics estimates the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion throughout the past three months, or about $750 per household, through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.
To some, the conflict has already gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.
“There is a timeline, and we’ve already passed it,” GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.
The White House rejected the notion that the conflict could become a long-term political liability, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.
“President Trump…
