Owen Paterson’s dramatic resignation as an MP presents the Conservatives with a nightmare by-election, in which opponents will campaign against “Tory sleaze”.
His decision – after his children “asked me to leave politics altogether” – means the Conservatives are now facing three by-elections this winter in what should be safe seats.
Mr Paterson had a hefty majority of 22,949 in Shropshire North at the last general election, with Labour second and the Liberal Democrats in third place.
It’s a rural constituency on the Welsh border, made up of small market towns and villages. Previously known as Oswestry, it has been Tory since 1906.
When Mr Paterson succeeded the former Tory cabinet minister John Biffen in Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour landslide, his majority was a slender 2,195.
But it has steadily climbed to its now seemingly impregnable margin, nudging 23,000, and in any other circumstances this by-election would be a stroll for the Tories.
These are not normal circumstances, however, and North Shropshire has the potential to be a firecracker of a by-election and the Conservatives will be worried about a colossal upset.
The other two winter by-elections in safe Tory seats will be entirely different.
Sir David Amess and James Brokenshire were both much-loved MPs and untainted by scandal.
Sir David Amess was stabbed to death while meeting constituents in a church
James Brokenshire died after being treated for lung cancer
The by-election in Mr Brokenshire’s Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency is due on 2 December and Tory councillor Louie French will be defending a majority of 18,952.
The poll in Sir David’s Southend West seat is likely to…
Source : skynews
