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Since the local elections Reform UK has had no shortage of good polls.
But a new one suggests Nigel Farage’s party has a chance not only of winning the next election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.
In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time, with Nigel Farage’s party edging in front on 25%, Labour pushed into second on 24%, with the Tories on 21%.
But a fresh one from Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Conservatives a distant third on 15%.
While the other parties are flatlining, Reform appears to be pushing boundaries.
Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30, Sky News analysis suggests.
Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 on last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.
But polling should always be taken with a pinch of salt and with the firm acknowledgement that there is not an election coming any time soon.
Conservative backbenchers might also tell you publicly that opinion polls are notoriously difficult to translate into seat numbers because voting percentages in individual constituencies can vary hugely from the overall average.
But the truth is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping another poll is likely to be noticed by MPs from all parties, especially backbench Conservatives who have actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, can help them climb the polls and bring the party back into public favour.
Politics…
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