There is a poorly understood but plausible chance winter temperatures could plummet in the UK even as global temperatures soar.
An emerging body of research is charting the risk that climate change could weaken or even collapse a major ocean current that brings heat northwards from the Atlantic into Europe.
In the absence of that warm front, Britain would be plunged into a new ice age in winter, battling frozen runways, roads, forests and farmland.
Arctic sea ice would blanket much of Scotland and most of the North Sea down to East Anglia by late winter.
Temperatures in London would reach lows of -19C, a staggering 16C colder than lows in the 1800s, before humans began changing the climate.
That’s according to a new study published today that has modelled what a collapse of the so-called “AMOC” (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), combined with 2C of global warming, would mean for Europe.
In Edinburgh, changes would be even more drastic. The study found temperatures would fall below zero on 164 days in a year – that’s almost half of the year.
All scientists know at this stage, more or less, is that the AMOC is probably less stable than previously thought.
They don’t know how likely such a collapse is, how quickly it could unfold, and what the precise impacts would be.
What they do know, is that if it happens, it would be “quite devastating,” said lead author Rene van Westen, from Utrecht University in the Netherlands.
“The AMOC is currently regulating the global climate. And if this shuts down, you will get substantial and drastic climate shifts… not only [in] Europe, it is something on a planetary scale.”
And they say the risk has so far been overlooked.
What is the AMOC?
Snaking its way around the world, the so-called AMOC plays a crucial role in regulating both the European and global…
