This is not a drill. There is a chance – albeit a small one – that an asteroid could hit planet Earth within the next decade.
The 2024 YR4 asteroid set off automated asteroid warning systems after it was spotted through advanced telescopes in Rio Hurtado, Chile, last December.
Since then, the asteroid has jumped to the top of the risk list – a catalogue of all space objects which could possibly clash with our planet.
It’s far from panic stations – but experts say the probability of an impact with Earth has almost doubled from 1.2% in January to about 2.3% now.
But how much do we know about the asteroid, and when will we know for sure if we’re safe? Plus: what could happen if it really is heading our way?
When could it hit – and where?
If there is impact, it’s estimated to be at exactly 2.02pm on 22 December 2032 – though the precise time is prone to change, as is the exact probability of its collision with Earth.
NASA says the asteroid would likely hit somewhere across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
What we know about the asteroid
2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40m to 90m wide – or 130ft to 300ft.
It’s made of a rocky substance rather than more robust materials like iron, which is significant because it means it could break into smaller pieces if it enters Earth’s atmosphere, says Doctor Luca Conversi, who is the manager of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC), which is heavily involved in monitoring 2024 YR4.
