One hundred thousand extra pensioners could be in poverty by 2027 due to the government’s decision to axe the winter fuel payment, according to modelling from the Department for Work and Pensions.
Labour‘s decision to remove the universal payment of up to £300 to the elderly – and instead make it only available to those on certain benefits – was widely criticised when it was made over the summer.
Up until now, an impact assessment on the plans had not been published.
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However, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has now put the information in the public domain, after being asked to do so by the Work and Pensions Select Committee.
The figures project that 50,000 more pensioners could be in “relative poverty after housing costs” in the financial year ending 2025, a similar number the year after, and then 100,000 in the year ending 2027.
It then drops to 50,000 people in the financial year ending 2028, before going back up to 100,000 for the years ending 2029 and 2030.
However, Ms Kendall’s letter is full of caveats and context for the numbers.
The most important being that the numbers are not cumulative – i.e. there will not be 450,000 extra pensioners in poverty by 2030, but rather the figures show the change in each year compared to a scenario without changes.
So in 2030, there could be 100,000 more pensioners in poverty under the plans compared to a hypothetical 2030 with no changes made.
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Another caveat is that the smallest change the modelling will show is 50,000 people, so there is no midway point for the model between 50,000 and 100,000.
And a further explanation states that the model does not include other government policies – for example, the efforts to…
