Deep beneath the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, in a labyrinth of fortified tunnels outside the city of Natanz, centrifuges spun at speeds too fast for the eye to track. The cascade of machines, arranged in long halls and shielded by concrete and steel, have been central to Iran’s most sensitive nuclear work, and, until recently, largely immune to airstrikes. But this month Israeli warplanes penetrated Iranian airspace and struck multiple nuclear sites, including underground facilities thought to be untouchable.
While the full extent of the damage remains murky, satellite imagery and initial damage assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that the strikes on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility were particularly effective, knocking out the electricity to the underground area.
The Israeli strikes also blew up the uneasy nuclear status quo that existed in the Middle East for years while raising a daunting question: What happens if Iran decides that the only true deterrent is to build a bomb?
Read more: A New Middle East Is Unfolding Before Our Eyes
For over a decade, Tehran has operated just below the threshold of nuclear breakout capability. But this spring it abandoned that restraint. The IAEA reported in May that Iran had accumulated roughly 120 kg of uranium enriched to 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade levels of 90%—and enough to build 22 nuclear bombs within five months if further enriched. At the same time, Iran began building a third enrichment hall on top of the two already in use. U.S. officials saw it as a provocation; Israel viewed it as a casus belli.
The military strikes Israel launched on June 13 were swift, surgical, and calibrated. Israeli officials described them as a pre-emptive operation to cripple Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon by targeting its main enrichment sites, nuclear scientists, and military officials.
