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The Israeli government’s approach to Hamas has been, by most accounts, a strategic failure. Israel’s citizens were not protected on Oct. 7, 2023, despite what seems to have been indicative prior warning of that appalling Hamas attack. And the decisive military defeat of Hamas remains elusive. The staggering death, injury, and suffering inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza in response has also helped turn much global opinion sharply against Israel, while doing little to bolster the security of ordinary Israelis.
Historically, it is responses to terrorism that have changed the world more than the violence itself, often in profoundly unwelcome ways. The post-9/11 Global War on Terror provides one illustration, with an overly militarized U.S. response that saw the 2003 invasion of Iraq under the false notion that the country had Weapons of Mass Destruction. The blowback helped spawn the Islamic State. This 2024 Israel-Hamas war looks poised to offer another destabilizing example, risking the perpetuation of cycles of bloodshed in the future, as well as the possibility of a regional war with neighboring states.
Counterterrorism is, by nature, extremely difficult. Successes tend to be less visible than failures. When the bomb goes off, it is a high-profile tragedy. When attacks are prevented, much less attention tends to be paid. Again, the understandable demand that governments do something now can work against the logic of patient, long-term progress that is essential to a successful counterterrorism program. Immediate tactics that too often rely on military methods can seem to address the public’s need to do something. But they often have ambiguous or deleterious effects in practice.
All of that is playing out in Gaza today. To be sure, Israel has had some successes since Oct. 7. Hamas has been damaged, significant numbers of its fighters have been killed, and much of its infrastructure has been destroyed.
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