US has few good options if China seizes islands close to Taiwan, war game concludes US has few good options if China seizes islands close to Taiwan, war game concludes

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The scenario, outlined in a report from the Center for a New American Security, began with China using military force to take control of Dongsha, a tiny atoll in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong, where approximately 500 Taiwanese troops are stationed.

This type of limited aggression could be a precursor to the seizure of other islands near Taiwan or an outright invasion of the democratically governed island as Beijing seeks to test and prod Washington’s resolve to defend Taiwan.

But once China has established its own military footprint on Dongsha and removed the Taiwanese troops, the US had no credible way to compel China to return the island to the control of Taipei, the report states. Economic sanctions took too long to produce effects and appeared too weak to influence China’s decision-making, while any military action risked an escalation to war, which both the US and Taiwan want to avoid if possible.

Instead, the report stressed the need for a multilateral approach, suggesting the US, Taiwan, Japan and others work to deter China from seizing the island in the first place.

“The United States and Taiwan must begin coordinating today to build a credible deterrent against limited Chinese aggression or coercion toward Taiwan,” the authors wrote. In every scenario, cooperation with Japan was critical to establishing an effective deterrent.

Tensions increasing

Beijing has ramped up military pressure on the island in recent weeks and Taiwan’s defense minister earlier this month made a dire prediction: by 2025, China will be able to mount a “full-scale” invasion of Taiwan. The war game focused on an invasion of Dongsha in 2025.

Last week, US President Joe Biden stated that the US was committed to coming to Taiwan’s defense if it comes under attack from China — remarks that seemed in opposition to America’s stated policy of “strategic ambiguity.”

Asked twice during a CNN town hall whether the US would protect Taiwan if China attacked, Biden said it…

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Source : cnn