UK economy flatlines but avoids recession this year

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The UK economy has flatlined but has avoided a recession this year as the chancellor warned high inflation remained the main obstacle to growth.

Fresh data from the Office for National Statistics shows that gross domestic product (GDP) – which measures the value of goods and services produced – rose by 0.2% over the month, amid a boost from the film production, health and education industries although growth in August was revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%.

While the figures indicate the economy failed to grow at all in the third quarter, it does mean the UK dodges a recession this year which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

Analysts had predicted a 0.2% fall for the latest period.

Economists said the manufacturing and construction sectors particularly helped to support growth over the end of the quarter.

Sclerotic growth gives chancellor little room for manoeuvre

Paul Kelso

Business correspondent

@pkelso

Zero growth in the third quarter of 2023 was marginally better than expectations of a small contraction, but confirmed the UK’s flatlining post-COVID economic trajectory.

There may be some relief that the prospect of recession, predicted by the Bank of England among others earlier in the year, has receded, but there is precious little to celebrate beneath the headline figure.

The torpor in the three months to September affected all significant sectors more or less equally.

Services activity fell by 0.1% cancelling out a 0.1% increase in construction, while production was flat.

Meanwhile, spending by companies, individuals and the public sector, was depressed, with business investment, household and government spending all down.

This may further evidence that the interest rate increases pushed through…

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