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When the Russian military invaded Ukraine last month, the most highly credentialed people in the world seemed stunned by it and that was not very reassuring to the rest of us.
“It was a shock to many of the leading experts and policymakers in the United States, Europe and even Ukraine,” explained a fellow expert and policymaker at the Atlantic Council. “The head of German intelligence was so caught off guard that he was still in Kyiv and had to be evacuated.”
That’s pretty weird if you think about it, because for weeks, Joe Biden had been speaking in a very loud voice about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. They seemed ready for it and yet it turns out that nobody in Washington, including Biden himself, really thought it was going to happen and when it did happen, official Washington concluded that Putin must be insane.
UKRAINE APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN SHELLING RUSSIAN TERRITORY
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting via video conference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, March 23, 2022.
(Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
“The casual speculation about Vladimir Putin’s mental state has become more serious,” wrote National Review. In other words, there’s a reason, a good reason none of us saw this coming. Putin just snapped. He’s irrational and impossible to predict. A lot of people took that at face value, but you had to notice that, like most explanations you hear in Washington, it was self-exculpatory. It was more an excuse than an analysis.
In fact, Putin may well be crazy, but it’s fair to assume there was more to the invasion of Ukraine than a single psychiatric episode and at this point, it would be nice to know exactly what it is, what happened and why. Why did the Russians do this? It’s not treasonous to ask that. It’s essential. You can’t make wise decisions about the future without understanding what just…
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