Even when the Conservatives slumped to a historic defeat at the general election, few would have thought that one of the world’s oldest political parties would soon be overtaken in the polls by a young pretender on the radical right.
Fast forward two years and the Conservatives are locked in a battle for supremacy with Reform UK which largely defeated them in last May’s local elections and has been securing defections from Tory councillors, former MPs, and even some current MPs.
It’s led some to suggest the two parties should unite to take on Labour rather than have a split right risk another left victory. If that happened, it would not be the first time Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, decided not to stand candidates in Conservative seats – his then-Brexit Party did so in 2019 – a year when the Tories enjoyed a comfortable victory.
But now, modelling by Sky News and exclusive polling with Ipsos suggest that hopes that an electoral pact might offer a path back to power for the right are misplaced. In fact, Reform and the Tories could risk losing as many votes as they gain.
Nationally, the latest voting intention polls from YouGov show that Reform is leading with around 23% of the vote while the Conservatives are taking 17%.
Simply adding these figures together might suggest that the two parties would dominate in the polls if they joined forces.
But the answer is not so straightforward, Sky News research reveals.
The polling suggests the British public has limited appetite for electoral pacts on either end of the political spectrum.
Ipsos surveyed 2,518 adults in Britain between 20 and 24 February about various possible electoral pacts and a Conservative-Reform alliance performed worst of all – with almost half of all Britons surveyed against the idea and just 18% in favour.
A pact was defined as the parties not standing candidates against each other in their target seats.
More Conservative supporters say they would oppose a…
