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A domestic focus for both the U.S. and Chinese governments lowers the odds of a big international conflict in 2022, but it leaves less potential leadership and coordination to respond to emerging crises. That’s bad news in a year that will be dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and a number of regional geopolitical crises.
1. No zero COVID
We’re done with the pandemic, but it’s not yet done with us, and the finish line depends on where you live. Critically, China’s “zero COVID” policy will fail.
In the developed world, the end is near. The highly transmissible Omicron variant is colliding with highly vaccinated populations that are bolstered by highly effective mRNA vaccines and COVID-19 treatments. That’s why the pandemic will likely become endemic for advanced industrial economies in the first half of this year. Yet even in the developed world, the economic hangover from the pandemic will endure this year with disrupted supply chains and persistent inflation.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]
But China, the primary engine for global growth, will face highly transmissible COVID-19 variants without the most effective vaccines and with far fewer people protected by previous infection. China’s policy will fail to contain infections, lead to larger outbreaks, and require more severe lockdowns. That means greater economic disruptions, lower consumption, and a more dissatisfied population at odds with the triumphalist “China defeated COVID” of the state-run media. China ‘s problem will continue until sometime after it has rolled out domestically developed mRNA shots and boosters for the world’s largest population—at the end of the year by the earliest.
In general, developing countries will be hit hardest, and political incumbents will bear the brunt of public anger. Demand for booster shots in wealthier countries will prevent effective vaccines from becoming more widely available. New outbreaks will slow economic growth in emerging markets and leave…
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Source : time
