The first three months of this year have seen the highest number of small boat arrivals ever at 4,644, according to provisional Home Office figures.
Not by very much. The number for the first three months of 2022 was 4,548 – 96 fewer.
A few days of poorer weather could have swung it the other way, but the point is it’s moving in the wrong direction for a prime minister who promised to “stop the boats”.
If you promise to reduce the numbers as one of your key pledges, then you get blamed for every failure to do so.
Politics live: New figures spell trouble for one of Sunak’s pledges
Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned from the government last year, described his party’s immigration policy in a tweet as “the triumph of hope over experience”.
As Tories head off on the local election campaign trail in glum spirits, the message from Downing Street is that this “migration emergency” can only be solved by getting flights to Rwanda.
And the legislation which might – possibly – allow that to happen won’t be debated again until after Easter following a string of defeats by peers.
Time is ticking down.
“It’s a mess,” one former cabinet minister tells me. “Voters raise small boats all the time and they know there’s no deterrent.
“Number 10 seem to think if they just keep saying the numbers will go down, maybe they will.”
Plenty of initiatives have been launched, as the Home Office points out, but MPs question whether they are effective.
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