For decades, some in Europe talked up the need for “collective European defense,” a policy to sharply reduce dependence on Washington for military protection. The debate never got far because Britain and Germany saw no reason to jeopardize transatlantic ties with a drive for security independence. When Russia launched a full-on invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it quickly became clear that Europe’s dependence on America for military muscle was deeper than ever.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]
Then Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, confronting European leaders with the reality that his commitment to Europe had become an open question—especially as war raged in Ukraine. Earlier this year, the center-right CDU/CSU won federal elections in Germany, elevating Friedrich Merz to Chancellor. Merz wasted no time in trumpeting a plan to dramatically boost Germany’s role in Europe’s defense.
In May, Germany’s Foreign Minister pledged that Germany would spend 5% of GDP on defense, a demand Trump has made several times, and which NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has echoed (the U.S. spends 3.4%). Germany is the second NATO member, after Poland, to back this plan, and Merz has joined France, the U.K., and Poland in a push to bring Russia to peace talks with Ukraine.
But Merz isn’t just bowing to demands from Washington. In his first major policy speech to the Bundestag on May 14, he pledged that Germany’s military would be the “strongest conventional army in Europe,” a breathtaking promise for anyone old enough to remember the days when heavy military investment in post-reunification Germany was politically taboo. Merz will push to increase troop levels from the current 182,000 active-duty soldiers to as many as 240,000 by 2031 (most likely by reintroducing the draft). Germany will also replace aging aircraft, tanks, and ships. The rest will go toward defense-related infrastructure. Even if Merz—whose coalition partner, the Social Democrats, is…
