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As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinds on, and Western leaders weigh their options and calibrate their responses, it’s obvious the impact of this war is global. Here’s a look at how this shock is shifting the tectonic plates of economics and politics around the world.
Middle East and North Africa
There was a moment when it appeared Russia’s war might sink the multinational effort to negotiate a return to the Iran nuclear deal. Russia—a party to the bargaining along with the U.S., Britain, France, Germany and China—was demanding a side deal to protect its commercial ties with Iran that would have violated sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine invasion. That issue appears to have been resolved, whether or not it happens…we’ll wait and see.
More broadly, one of the war’s main implications for the Middle East comes from global oil prices that have reached heights we haven’t seen in nearly a decade. Saudi Arabia and the UAE now enjoy big budget surpluses. Europe’s determination to relieve its dependence for natural gas on Russia also promises big potential long-term gains for major gas exporters Qatar and Algeria.
But those countries in the region that aren’t big energy producers, particularly those that import nearly all their food, now face real dangers. Russia and Ukraine together account for a quarter of world wheat exports and a fifth of corn sales. In recent years, nearly half of Ukraine’s wheat exports have gone to North Africa and the Middle East, where many governments subsidize food purchases for millions of their citizens. The interruption of so much of the world’s wheat supply, and Ukraine’s inability to plant crops for next year, sharply raises the cost of these subsidies for governments already reeling from the costs of COVID-19. This is a region…
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Source : time
