Despite those obstacles, the Senate seat most likely to flip is still a pickup opportunity for Democrats. Pennsylvania has led this list since its incarnation — a testament to it being an open seat in a state Biden carried in 2020. The ranking is based on CNN’s reporting and fundraising and advertising data, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. Two seats have traded places on the latest list, however, which underscores the difficult environment for Democrats: New Hampshire slides above North Carolina as more likely to flip.
Republicans have their own challenges, though, mostly candidate-driven. May primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania are heating up as GOP candidates jockey for former President Donald Trump’s blessing. At the same time, candidates who do have his backing are finding that it doesn’t solve all their problems. (Trump just rescinded his endorsement for the open Senate seat in Alabama, where Rep. Mo Brooks’ campaign was underwhelming.) He’s backed candidates in two competitive states with May primaries — Georgia and North Carolina.
Much to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s chagrin, the chair of the GOP committee charged with flipping the Senate recently released an 11-point plan that calls for all Americans to pay income tax. Expect Democrats to tie all Republicans, even those who have disavowed the tax proposal, to Florida Sen. Rick Scott’s plan (released by his campaign, not the National Republican Senatorial Committee). It’s a tactic that House Democrats successfully used against the GOP in 2018, when they tied even Republicans who had voted against repealing Obamacare to that effort, and that Republicans used against Democrats in 2020 in linking the entire party to the “defund the police” movement.
The paid media (i.e., television advertising) portion of the campaign is just taking off in many of these races, so we’ll see how much that message sticks in the months to come.
Here are the 10 Senate seats…
Source : cnn
