Super Bowl betting – The unlikely play that can swing millions of dollars
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What would become the most lucrative Super Bowl to date for Las Vegas sportsbooks began with a massive loss on the very first play of the game.
In NFL history, only 6.8% of regular-season games — approximately one in 15 — have included a safety, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Yet, year after year, the betting public loads up on a safety occurring in the Super Bowl, despite odds nowhere close to 15-1. The going price for a safety in the Super Bowl this year is 7-1.
Meanwhile, savvy pro bettors annually short the Super Bowl safety, sometimes waiting until just before kickoff to risk hundreds of thousands of dollars for a chance at winning a few thousand dollars. Sportsbooks align themselves with the pros on the safety prop and end up with tons of small bets on the “yes” at long odds, and a handful of giant wagers on the “no” that pay only a little.
“Laying a big price is not sexy,” said Rufus Peabody, a professional bettor known for his prowess on Super Bowl props. “If it wins, you don’t win a lot; if it loses, you lose a lot. I see why the average recreational bettor doesn’t like laying a big price like that. If I made one bet a year, I probably wouldn’t want to risk $1,000 to win $100.”
Indeed, football’s rarest scoring play routinely produces one of the biggest pros-vs-joes gambling decisions on the Super Bowl, and, on Feb. 2, 2014, the squares bested the sharps — and the bookmakers — with, depending on your perspective, the most lucrative or most expensive safety in NFL history.
Nevada sportsbooks won a record $19.7 million at Super Bowl XLVIII between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. That’s nearly as much as the state’s books had won in the previous four Super Bowls combined. The betting public sided heavily with Peyton Manning and the Broncos as small favorites and got clobbered with the Seahawks’ 43-8 rout. The bookmakers crushed it, but it didn’t start out well for the house or the professional bettors, like the wise guy known to some as Marco…
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Source : espn
