[ad_1]
The prime minister has taken a defensive approach, signalling the Conservatives’ worry about being so far behind in the polls.
Sir Keir Starmer’s visits show the scale of their ambition and highlight Labour’s awareness of the challenge they face. They need to gain 125 seats to win the smallest possible majority.
This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.
For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.
Defending deep into Tory territory
Rishi Sunak’s very first campaign stop was Erewash in the East Midlands, a seat that should be considered safe with its 22% Conservative majority, but one he clearly thinks could be vulnerable.
A Labour victory here would be at the cusp between Labour becoming the largest party in a hung parliament or taking an overall majority, if similar levels of voter swing were replicated at a national level.
The last time Labour held Erewash (which has not undergone boundary changes in this cycle) was from 1997 to 2010, under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s leaderships.
Labour ambitious
Labour’s visit to nearby Derbyshire Mid in the East Midlands shows the scale of their boldness. They need more than a 16-point swing to take the seat from the Tories, but their recent mayoral wins might mean they are feeling confident about convincing the voters here.
These stops in the Midlands show the regions to be a key battleground between the two main parties. The Conservatives had 76 MPs across the East and West, so it’s crucial for their general election fortunes. The extent of Labour success here could be the difference between them being the largest party or gaining a decisive majority.
The range of seats visited by Sir Keir demonstrate just…
[ad_2]
