Sir Keir Starmer has created, from nowhere, a pivotal by-election by his own hand.
He owns the outcome, because of his decision to block Andy Burnham – someone voters on the streets of Denton and Gorton thought by far to be the strongest candidate.
And nobody can anticipate the result, which Labour MPs think could trigger a coup against the prime minister should Labour come third.
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The east Manchester seat, with a 13,000 majority, has been Labour since before the Second World War, once regarded as an irredeemably poor, post-industrial area that was home to railway workers.
While some parts remain poor, others are the beneficiary of the economic improvement of Greater Manchester as a whole, as well as an area that has seen the upside of Emirati millions around the adjacent Manchester City stadium.
And as such, it is a melting pot of many differing communities, once united by Labour politics.
On 26 February, we will see if this remains the case.
Pressure from left and right
The constituency, northeast of the city, is shaped like a hammer, according to Rob Ford, the Manchester University political scientist.
The handle of the hammer, in the south of the seat, has several wards that are very ethnically diverse, large Muslim populations, but also large populations of students and young graduates.
“That looks like exactly the kind of territory where Labour has been losing support to the Greens in national polling recently,” said Ford.
Towards the head of the hammer, which is Gorton, and the wards in Tameside, it’s much whiter, 90% white, and much more working class, with…
