Nigel Farage is on course to be prime minister, according to a seat-by-seat YouGov poll which reveals the scale of Conservative implosion.
The YouGov MRP polling projection, based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks, suggests an election held tomorrow would see a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats, 15 seats short of the formal winning line of 326.
In practice, once the Speaker and absent Sinn Fein MPs are accounted for, it would be all but impossible for anyone other than Mr Farage to secure the largest number of MP backers and thus become prime minister.
Reform UK has improved its position since the last YouGov MRP in June, when it was 55 seats short of a majority. The projection suggests 306 Reform gains, up from their current seat tally of five, which would be the biggest increase in any election in British history.
The projection of Commons seats in Great Britain puts Reform UK on 311 seats, Labour on 144 seats, Liberal Democrats on 78 seats, Conservatives on 45 seats, SNP on 37 seats and Greens on seven seats, with Plaid on six seats and three seats won by left-wing challengers.
Northern Ireland constituencies are excluded.
Barely a year after Keir Starmer won a landslide, this result would see Labour lose around two-thirds of their existing seats, down from the 411 they won in last year’s general election.
This is significantly worse than the party’s 2019 result under Jeremy Corbyn when the party won 202 seats and is their lowest tally since 1931.
More than a third of Labour’s remaining seats would be in London, making them more reliant on London than any other British party is on any other nation or region.
Among the big-name casualties would be Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner.
The Conservatives would fare even worse, pushed potentially to the brink of extinction. They would lose two-thirds of their 121…
