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Millions of jobs in some of the most important sectors to the UK economy are at risk of being replaced by AI, according to OBR analysis.
Buried deep in the documents published as part of the budget process, estimates show that the financial, insurance and professional services industries are some of the most at risk of being automated.
More than two million jobs could potentially be “substituted” with AI across the sectors in the next 10 years, the Office for Budget Responsibility assessment suggested.
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These sectors contain some of the biggest UK employers, and also the most lucrative for workers, business and the taxman, and the government’s industrial strategy singled them out as key areas for UK growth.
The work by the OBR does not paint a completely bleak picture – suggesting that AI will add to productivity in the years to come, with the UK 0.2% more productive due to AI by the end of the decade.
The analysis prepared by the watchdog modelled how different industries might be impacted by AI – breaking jobs down into two categories: substituted and complemented.
Roles that could be substituted by AI are those where the tasks “could be fully automated without the need for human involvement”.
Those that could be complemented are those where “AI will help people carry out these tasks more efficiently rather than replacing them”.
This analysis – which for fans of irony included the use of large language model AIs in its preparation – highlighted the risks.
It found that in the next decade, 1.3 million jobs in professional services and 800,000 in the financial and insurance sector are at risk of being substituted.
Past the technical modelling in the annex of productivity forecasts, it is not clear if there has been any anticipation of what could happen if more than two million jobs are automated.
In the OBR’s forecast…
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