By now, you are probably aware that at 3.30pm the new chancellor will tell MPs of an approximately £20bn black hole in the public finances, necessitating immediate painful spending cuts today and paving the way for tax increases in an October budget.
Rachel Reeves and her team will then challenge the Tories over who knew what and when about the shortfall, and hope this argument is ringing in voters’ ears going into the summer.
But as much as Labour insist this is all a surprise – with some, though not total justification – Monday afternoon will tell us a lot we didn’t know about Britain’s future, with lots of clues to what’s next in the fine detail and the nuance.
Here are the key things to watch for.
What exactly is today
Ms Reeves will say the last Tory government has gone “over budget” in the 2024/5 financial year that began in April to the tune of around £20bn.
She will then set out some immediate cost savings, to cover some – but not all – of this £20bn.
Ms Reeves has been advised that “we couldn’t leave a shortfall that big without immediate action” – presumably on account of market reaction – so the overspend gap will be narrowed (but not closed) by “very very painful” immediate savings to the 2024/5 budget.
Ms Reeves is the most powerful she will ever be right now: so expect the hardest of political choices. She will then also give the date of the budget, where it is fair to presume the rest of the shortfall will be made up by tax increases and other spending cuts.
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