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If you just read the headlines last week, you’d think Rep. Kevin McCarthy has finally reached his long-chased goal of wielding the Speaker’s gavel, that the top Republican in the House would finally get the top gig and fall right behind the Vice President in the line of presidential succession. But there’s a slight hiccup here, one based on something as simple as math: the gig goes to the person with a majority of the votes, and McCarthy simply might not get them.
You see, McCarthy is chasing 218 votes to claim the simple majority of voting House seats, assuming there are no vacancies, absences, or present votes when the next Speaker is chosen. But with Republicans winning a majority by just a handful of seats in the midterms, that gives him almost no wiggle room. In the internal Republican vote, McCarthy received just 188 votes, with 31 defecting to a protest candidacy of Rep. Andy Biggs, and another five writing in other names. McCarthy has said he won’t rely on Democratic votes to win the speakership, meaning he needs to win over the NeverKevins in his nominal alliance—and a number of them have pledged never to be swayed.
Put another way: McCarthy at the moment doesn’t yet have the votes and has roughly six weeks to land them, either through brute bullying, sweet talking, or pragmatic horse trading. Otherwise, balloting could continue with other candidates stepping in from the far-right, from the establishment wing, or what passes for the middle in the GOP these days.
Or—and this is the less-than-ideal scenario that almost no one in Washington really wants to see enacted—former President Donald Trump could raise his head from Mar-a-Lago and anoint someone as his pick, and then return to his latest…
