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The rise in gas prices over the past 48 hours is without precedent.
Even in the chaotic opening weeks of the Ukraine war in 2022, the gas price never doubled. But that is precisely what has happened to wholesale methane prices in the UK.
And since gas prices are arguably the single most important price in Britain – the lynchpin of our power network, determining prices for electricity, underpinning industrial production and the manufacture of chemicals, trickling indirectly into the price of food and other sundry items – this is of enormous consequence.
Markets latest: FTSE 100 loses £100bn and fuel warning issued
The trigger for the sharp rise is the continued chaos in the Gulf, as oil and gas facilities come under bombardment from Iranian drones. No one seems to know how long this will last, but that is among the most important of all questions.
The longer it goes on, the higher gas prices are likely to climb. Although the speed of the rise in the past 48 hours is faster than any other comparable period in history, the absolute level of gas prices remains far lower than at the peaks in the Ukraine war in 2022. Then again, given that triggered an unprecedented energy price shock across Europe, not to mention a forced deindustrialisation of the continent that continues today, that is far from reassuring.
The longer it continues, the greater will be the impact on household bills in the UK, which have been fixed until June (and benefit from a £150 discount thanks to a measure in the last budget), but are due to reflect wholesale prices as of July.
All of which is why the events unfolding in Iran and its surroundings remain…
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