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“The Seventh Carbon Budget Advice for the UK government” couldn’t sound more tedious.
But it is arguably the most consequential report to date for the UK’s economy and, perhaps, the political fortunes of Keir Starmer’s government.
The UK’s world-leading aim of cutting carbon emissions to zero by 2050 is colossally ambitious. And as Labour’s critics gleefully point out, potentially ruinous.
But what doesn’t get mentioned often enough is how, without anybody really noticing, we’ve already done half the work needed. Our emissions are already down 50%.
That was achieved by getting rid of coal and replacing an increasing share of gas-fired power generation with wind and solar power.
That was far from simple – and there is a lot left to do to deliver “the homegrown clean power” Labour campaigned on (not mentioning the fact they, or any other government, was legally required to do it anyway).
But it’s cutting the remaining 50% of emissions where things get interesting. Because from here on in, the path to net zero runs right into people’s homes, where billpayers and voters live.
And we’re going to notice it.
By 2038 to 2042, the majority of homes will need to have ditched their gas boiler for a heat pump, switched to an electric car, and probably be eating a bit less meat (cleverly, the committee expert invoked kebabs as the semi-official yardstick here: meat eating must fall from the equivalent of eight kebabs a week to six by 2050. A hardship most consumers would gladly stomach – perhaps less so if it was lamb chops or steak).
The advantages are multiple. EVs and heat pumps are inherently more efficient, less polluting, insulated from conflict-driven price shocks and – once you’ve paid for them – cheaper.
And there’s the rub. Because they’re so much more expensive now, the challenge for a cash-strapped government is how to help consumers with the upfront costs that benefit us all in the long run.
Read more:
How the climate…
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