Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure on multiple fronts amid the fallout from Lord Peter Mandelson’s sacking.
While there is no direct plot to oust him, the left-wing MP Richard Burgon has predicted the prime minister will be gone by May 2026 if next year’s local elections go badly.
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It’s worth noting that Mr Burgon has never been a fan of the current Labour leadership and Sir Keir has the full public backing of his cabinet – not to mention a large parliamentary majority.
So, how can you oust a UK prime minister?
Confidence Vote
A core convention of the UK’s constitution is that the government must be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. While governments don’t have to consistently prove they “hold confidence”, they are expected to resign or trigger a general election if they lose a confidence vote.
There are different ways in which this can come about.
The leader of the Opposition can table a vote of no confidence, which must explicitly state that the House has lost confidence in the government (rather than simply being critical of the leadership).
The last time this brought down an administration was in 1979, when James Callaghan’s minority Labour government, plagued by a wave of strikes and high inflation, was defeated by 311 to 310. The knife-edge vote triggered a general election, which the Conservatives won under Margaret Thatcher – and Labour did not return to power for 18 years.
However, it is rare for governments to be defeated in confidence motions (before Callaghan, the last time this happened was Stanley Baldwin in 1924).
Often, under-fire prime ministers will bring about their own confidence vote, usually by declaring a key policy as a “matter of confidence”.
This tactic was deployed by John…
