Forecasters are predicting an exceptionally busy Atlantic cyclone season and fear that conditions are ripe to turbo-charge several devastating hurricanes.
Two of the most damaging hurricanes in history, the category four Hurricane Opal in 1995 and the category five Hurricane Katrina in 2005, were intensified by something called the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico.
This ocean current protrudes through the Yucatan Channel into the belly of the gulf before exiting through the Straits of Florida. This year it has pushed much farther north than usual.
“When the Loop Current is extended, it eventually sheds a large eddy, or Ring, which then drifts westward, whereas the Loop Current retracts to the south,” explained the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
An eddy from the Loop Current powered Hurricane Katrine up from a tropical cyclone as it passed through the Straits of Florida into a category five hurricane that ultimately flooded much of New Orleans and caused more than $100bn in damages.
For the seventh year in a row NOAA has forecast an above-average hurricane season, with between 14 and 21 named storms, with 70% confidence.
Meteorologists fear if one of these tropical storms was to pass over the deep warm waters of the Loop Current they could strengthen into extremely powerful hurricanes – and do so almost overnight.
NOAA expects between three to six major hurricanes – above category three with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Writing for The Conversation, Professor Nick Shay at the University of Miami said: “I have been monitoring ocean heat content for more than 30 years as a marine scientist. The conditions I see in the Gulf in May 2022 are cause for concern.”
He described the Loop Current as “the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks” and said: “When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what’s forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks…
Source : skynews
