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Energy costs could come down as European gas storage facilities are expected to end the winter season at a record of more than 50% full.
Modelling done by energy consultancy Cornwall Insight suggests gas supplies are secure after concerns of shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Fuller storage units mean less future demand for gas, which can bring down prices.
Storage facilities across Europe will end winter between 45% and 61% full – an average of 55% capacity – bypassing the previous end of winter record of 54% in 2020.
Following the start of the conflict in Ukraine, European countries raced to reduce their reliance on Russian gas, which pushed up prices and led to concerns about energy supplies in winter 2022 to 2023.
Having a greater amount of gas in storage means more is ready for winter 2023-2024 and less needs to be bought, leaving supplies more secure than in 2022.
It is a doubling from last year.
On 31 March 2022 just 26% of European storage facilities were filled, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
There was concern that the lights could not be kept on amid gas shortages. In the UK the National Grid’s Electricity System Operator had warned in October that planned three-hour power blackouts could be imposed in the event of gas supplies falling short of demand.
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To reduce energy demand and cope with potential shortages, EU countries formally agreed a voluntary 10% cut in gross electricity consumption and a mandatory reduction of 5% during peak use hours.
But high gas storage levels this year do not mean prices will drop to lows seen at the end of previous high storage-level winters.
Despite the “considerably more positive” forecasts, the lead research analyst at Cornwall Insight said he was cautious about saying Europe is over the worst of the energy crisis.
“Any single factor can influence the pace and pattern of storage refill, and…
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