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Kemi Badenoch’s promise to “maximise” oil and gas extraction has put clear North Sea water between her party and the government.
Given the scant reserves that remain beneath the UK continental shelf however, the plan may be literally scraping the barrel.
In the first concrete policy consequence of Ms Badenoch’s declaration that net zero (a policy introduced by her predecessor Theresa May) is “impossible”, she says the current ban on new oil and gas licences will be scrapped in the event she wins power.
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Echoing Donald Trump’s faith in fossil fuels, she told a conference in Aberdeen that North Sea oil and gas will be the “cornerstone of Britain’s future”. Given the long-term decline of reserves, that may be a stretch, even by the Conservatives’ numbers.
Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho says maximising extraction could generate £12bn in tax revenues over the course of this Parliament but she concedes it would not bring down prices for billpayers determined on global markets.
And while the oil and gas sector would jump at the chance to explore the potential of new reserves, the data suggests it could be a case of ‘drill, maybe, drill’.
North Sea oil and gas was the UK’s greatest windfall of the last century but production of oil and gas peaked in the late 1990s and, after a few years when we were net exporters, has been in steep decline since.
The reserves are far from empty but they are much reduced and cover only around 50% of domestic demand. The impact of tapping undeveloped and undiscovered fields meanwhile is marginal.
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