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In June 2020, a bloody border clash broke out between India and China in the Ladakh region—the deadliest since a 1962 war. Relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors plunged to their lowest level in decades. But, after four years of icy ties, the relationship is finally beginning to thaw.
India and China struck a border deal last month that calls for resuming patrols in Ladakh, and for disengaging troops that restore positions to pre-crisis locations. The accord likely paved the way for an Oct. 23 meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping—a first since the 2020 Ladakh clash—on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in Russia. They pledged to strengthen communication and cooperation.
These developments provide a chance to inch ties forward. New Delhi has long insisted the relationship can’t improve until border tensions are eased; that precondition has now been met. The two sides can also leverage the thaw to tap more fully into existing areas of cooperation. Trade ties have remained robust despite deep tensions, and goodwill triggered by the border deal could unlock more Chinese investment in India. New Delhi and Beijing work together in many global forums, from BRICS to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. They share many common interests, from countering terrorism and promoting multilateralism to embracing non-Western economic models—and rejecting what they view as U.S. moral crusading around the world.
A lasting détente between the two Asian giants would have far-reaching consequences, including for Washington’s strategic partnership with New Delhi—which is fueled by the shared goal of countering Chinese power. But it could also serve as a hedge against the unpredictability of President-elect Donald Trump, should he decide to jettison his hardline approach to Beijing and seek his own rapprochement with Xi—a leader Trump has often praised, including as recently as last month.
Yet the significance of the…
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