This week’s two by-elections had something for everyone – except Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has now broken into the record books with six by-election gains from the Conservatives, beating New Labour’s performance in the run-up to the 1997 Election.
Reform UK got more than 10% of the votes in both constituencies.
The Liberal Democrats lost two deposits, with less than 5% of votes cast each time. But even they have something to celebrate, according to one polling analyst.
Peter Kellner argues that their four by-election victories over the Tories since 2019 show that they are much better at concentrating their vote than they used to be – when they regularly clocked up 10% plus support across the country with nothing to show for it.
Reform could be falling into a similar trap with significant minority support spread nationwide, enough to damage the Conservatives without a sniff of winning a seat.
Labour’s Gen Kitchen celebrates after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election. Pic: PA
No wonder Nigel Farage is talking about “uniting the centre-right vote” of Conservatives and Reform, without committing himself personally to fight in the approaching general election.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has taken up the call for the two right-wing groupings to come together.
Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns has leapt on the by-election defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough to renew her call for Sunak to be replaced.
The prime minister must be wondering why his MPs keep inflicting damage on their party through their own behaviour.
All six of Labour’s by-election gains were precipitated by voluntary or forced resignations by Conservative MPs.
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