After years of vexed negotiations, few predicted a new Brexit deal on Northern Ireland. But not only did the February 27 agreement offer a genuine resolution of the thorny border problem – it also marked a big change in the ambience surrounding UK-EU relations. Some analysts say the war in Ukraine is a major factor in Brussels softening its stance, given the UK’s importance to European security, but they underscore that Britain will still be unable to enjoy the full benefits of EU membership outside the club.
Amid the smiles and fanfare at the Windsor Guildhall as the Northern Irish border deal was unveiled, EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen referred to PM Rishi Sunak as “dear Rishi”. Selling the deal in Northern Ireland, Sunak indicated a change in thinking from a glowing endorsement of a hard Brexit, instead hailing the British province’s place in the European single market as an “unbelievably special position”.
Sunak’s language mirrors a shift in British public attitudes towards Brexit over the past year and a half, with support for UK membership in the EU climbing to around 57 percent, according to a What UK Thinks polling aggregate.
The British economy is in a poor state post-Brexit. Both the IMF and OECD expect it to contract in 2023, as the G7’s worst-performing economy. Brexit is far from the only cause of this economic weakness; the UK has suffered from poor productivity growth since the 2008 financial crash for a complex array of reasons. Nevertheless, economists say Brexit is undermining the UK’s economic growth, with the Treasury’s non-partisan forecaster, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility, expecting Brexit to leave the economy four percent smaller than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.
>> Sunak’s ‘seismic’ deal resolves N. Ireland border problem – but DUP support…
