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To listen to UK car manufacturers in recent weeks has been to hear a counsel of despair over the electric vehicle market.
Struggling to hit targets imposed amid mixed messages from the last government, they have lobbied the new one to relax the rules.
Yet November’s figures show an industry not just hitting the 22% zero emission mandate (ZEV) but exceeding it, with EVs accounting for a quarter of all new sales.
In the week Ford joined Vauxhall and Nissan in calling for state incentives to boost sales, what are we to conclude?
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The industry says November is a blip, only the second month this year when EVs topped 22%, with the total for the year likely to fall just short of 19%, and only thanks to £4bn of discounting.
With the target rising to 28% next year, and fines of £15,000 for every vehicle by which they fall short, they say consumers need help, in the form of grants or tax breaks, to swallow their reservations about plugging in.
But the picture is not quite as simple as that.
Benefits beyond the headline target
While 22% is the headline target, manufacturers can benefit from flexibilities, including buying credits from competitors who exceed the target, to offset their shortfalls. (These carbon credits have long been a crucial revenue line for Tesla, raising almost $1.8bn (£1.41bn) last year.)
Proponents of EVs say once these are taken into account the “real” target is 19%, and with some manufacturers far exceeding targets, any shortfall can be met from competitors, with not a penny in fines going to the government.
New Automotive, which campaigns to increase the pace of the energy transition, tracks global EV sales and its latest figures show BMW-Mini, Jaguar and Vauxhall all recorded EV sales above 30%, with Peugeot, Renault, MG and Skoda exceeding 22% in November.
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