Today’s YouGov/MRP poll for Sky News confirms what we have been seeing in the polls for the last eighteen months, that the Conservative government is on course for a huge defeat – losing nearly two-thirds of its MPs.
The voting intention figures implied by this poll put Labour on 43% and the Conservatives on 25%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11% and Reform 10%, largely in line with the Sky News poll tracker.
Just like any poll, there is uncertainty attached to these numbers – YouGov estimates that the result for Labour will be between 393 and 445, and for the Conservatives between 119 and 160 seats.
Election latest: Minister hangs up on Sky’s Sam Coates
Its central prediction, 422 to 140 seats, would be larger than the landslide victory secured by Tony Blair in 1997 and the largest majority for a government since 1935.
It would be a dramatic and decisive break from 14 years of Conservative rule and a period defined by the Brexit vote.
There is notable uncertainty for the predictions in Scotland, where YouGov suggests the SNP could be on between 6 and 35 seats.
This accounts for much of the uncertainty in the headline predictions and is due to the large number of marginal contests north of the border.
If Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour secure a historic victory, it will be aided by victories in close races in Scotland.
The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll also provides important clues to what the pattern of voting might be on 4 July.
The estimates suggest that the sorts of places that delivered the Conservatives their decisive victory under Boris Johnson in 2019 are turning away from the party.
