Malians go to the polls on Sunday to pass judgment on the governing junta’s constitution, which has fuelled speculation that the country’s strongman ruler will seek election.
The west African nation has been under military rule since an August 2020 coup, which came after a decade of instability marked by jihadist insurgencies and political and economic crisis.
Some 8.4 million citizens are eligible to vote “yes” or “no” on the draft constitution in the first electoral test for leader Colonel Assimi Goita, 40, who has vowed to lead the country back to civilian rule in 2024 elections.
Voting begins at 0800 GMT and results are expected within 72 hours.
But election turnout is typically low in the country of 21 million, where many have grown weary of chronic instability, while others face the direct danger of jihadist attacks in central and northern regions.
Security is an ever-present concern—there is always the risk of an attack. For this reason the vote will not be held in some parts of the country, including in Kidal, the ex-rebels’ stronghold in the north.
The junta will be judged on turnout as a measure of its ability to restore stability, as well as an indicator of people’s enthusiasm for the junta’s agenda.
Chronic instability
The junta has advertised the new constitution as the answer to Mali’s inability to tackle its multiple crises.
Mali’s recent woes began in 2012, when separatist insurgents in the north—long seen as marginalised by the southern government—aligned with Al-Qaeda-linked Islamists to seize vast swathes of territory.
Former colonial power France stepped in and helped push back the Islamists, but attacks have continued, and Bamako has since broken its alliance with Paris in favour of Russia and its Wagner mercenaries.
Disputed parliamentary elections in March 2020, and mass protests against a government unable to reign in the insurgency, corruption and economic…
